{"id":7283,"date":"2023-12-28T16:43:53","date_gmt":"2023-12-28T16:43:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/?p=7283"},"modified":"2023-12-28T16:43:53","modified_gmt":"2023-12-28T16:43:53","slug":"decision-making","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/decision-making\/","title":{"rendered":"Decision-Making"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.17.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”0vh||0vh||true|false” custom_margin_tablet=”0vh||0vh||true|false” custom_margin_phone=”3vh||2vh||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” custom_padding=”0vh||0vh||true|false” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.23.3″ _module_preset=”default” header_font=”|||on|||||” header_font_size=”36px” header_3_font=”|700||on|||||” header_3_text_align=”center” header_3_text_color=”#C5310D” header_3_font_size=”40px” header_4_text_align=”center” header_4_font_size=”22px” header_4_line_height=”1.4em” custom_margin=”||3vh||false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”||0vh||false|false” custom_margin_phone=”” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|tablet” custom_padding=”||0vh||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|tablet” header_font_size_tablet=”36px” header_font_size_phone=”20px” header_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_3_font_size_tablet=”40px” header_3_font_size_phone=”34px” header_3_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

Decision-Making<\/h1>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.23.3″ _module_preset=”default” header_font_size=”36px” header_3_font=”|700||on|||||” header_3_text_align=”center” header_3_text_color=”#C5310D” header_3_font_size=”40px” header_4_text_align=”center” header_4_font_size=”22px” header_4_line_height=”1.4em” header_5_text_align=”center” custom_margin=”||3vh||false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”||0vh||false|false” custom_margin_phone=”” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|tablet” custom_padding=”||0vh||false|false” custom_padding_tablet=”” custom_padding_phone=”” custom_padding_last_edited=”on|tablet” header_font_size_tablet=”36px” header_font_size_phone=”20px” header_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” header_3_font_size_tablet=”40px” header_3_font_size_phone=”34px” header_3_font_size_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

by Peter Emerson<\/h2>\n

Director, the de Borda Institute<\/h5>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.23.3″ text_font=”||||||||” header_3_line_height=”1.4em” custom_margin=”0px||||false|false” custom_padding=”0px||0px||false|false” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

Life is full of decisions.\u00a0 Many have been taken violently, but then the Greeks decided to do things democratically.\u00a0 Umm, they thought\u2026 so the science of decision-making is ancient, and the instruments are several.\u00a0 For some crazy reasons, however, the world still uses the most primitive tool of all: the simple, two-option, majority vote.<\/p>\n

So ok, this article looks at decision-making; it starts with a bunch of kids choosing the veg for lunch; next, it looks at referendums and parliamentary votes; then it examines the COPs, like the recent world gathering in Dubai; and it concludes with a description of a more inclusive and more accurate preferential points system of voting.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/brocolli1.jpg” title_text=”brocolli1″ align=”center” _builder_version=”4.23.3″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”3vh||3vh||true|false” custom_margin_tablet=”3vh||3vh||true|false” custom_margin_phone=”3vh||0vh||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.23.3″ text_font=”||||||||” header_3_line_height=”1.4em” custom_margin=”0px||||false|false” custom_padding=”0px||0px||false|false” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

THE KIDS AT SCHOOL<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Imagine, then, the scene: the chef wants the children to choose their favourite vegetable.\u00a0 \u201cParsnips?\u201d he asks.\u00a0 \u201cUgh,\u201d they respond: a majority doesn\u2019t like parsnips.\u00a0 And that\u2019s that!\u00a0 \u201cBroccoli?\u201d\u00a0 An even bigger number doesn\u2019t like broccoli. \u00a0That\u2019s another that.\u00a0 Swedes?\u00a0 And so it goes on, a majority against<\/em> everything, (as was the case in the UK on Brexit).<\/p>\n

\u201cOh alright,\u201d says the chef, \u201cwhat about the pudding?\u201d\u00a0 The choice includes ice-cream, chocolate cake, blancmange\u2026\u00a0 and there\u2019s now a majority in favour<\/em> of everything.<\/p>\n

In a nutshell, asking a binary \u2018Option X<\/em><\/strong>, yes or no?\u2019 sort of question, a singleton, can be pretty meaningless.\u00a0 So some people pose a binary pairing: \u2018Do you want option X<\/em><\/strong> or option Y<\/em><\/strong>?\u2019<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.23.3″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/h3>\n

BREXIT<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

David Cameron asked a singleton: \u201cD\u2019you want to be in the EU, yes-or-no?\u201d and 52% said \u2018no\u2019.\u00a0 Logically, he should then have asked, \u201cD\u2019you want to be in the EEA instead, yes-or-no?\u201d\u00a0 Or the Customs Union?\u00a0 Or the World Trade Organisation WTO?\u00a0 And he might have got, yes, majorities against everything.\u00a0 Indeed, it\u2019s quite possible that the majority against the EU was the smallest, and that remaining in the EU was actually the winner!<\/p>\n

Theresa May had lots of options in her so-called indicative votes.\u00a0 In the first, there were eight options on the parliament\u2019s ballot paper\u2026 and sure enough, there were majorities against everything!\u00a0 The biggest majority was of over 300, the smallest of only 6.\u00a0 So the latter, a Customs Union option, was the least unpopular\u2026 which means it was the most popular!\u00a0 It should have won.\u00a0 But it was not a majority, so it lost; every option lost; (and everybody lost).<\/p>\n

Then came Boris.\u00a0 Ha; he used a pairing.\u00a0 Like the chef who asks, \u201cOK, kids, d\u2019you want my mixed veg or raw turnip?\u201d \u2013 he chose two options: \u2018his deal\u2019 and the most unpopular of all \u2018no deal\u2019.\u00a0 So he won.\u00a0 But of course he b\u2026.y won.\u00a0 Any veg would have beaten raw turnips, and \u2018any deal\u2019 was bound to beat \u2018no deal\u2019.\u00a0 Mathematically, scientifically, that parliamentary vote meant next to nothing. Politically, of course, it meant everything.\u00a0 What a crazy way to run the world.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/003417.33828c72.702307049.jpg” title_text=”003417.33828c72.702307049″ _builder_version=”4.23.3″ _module_preset=”default” hover_enabled=”0″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” align=”center” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.23.3″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/h3>\n

VOTES IN PARLIAMENT<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Greeks of old knew that, on a contentious question, there may indeed be a majority against everything.\u00a0 They therefore used pairings, for even if the outcome depends on the casting vote of the chair, a pairing always gives a definite answer, a majority in favour of something.<\/p>\n

So imagine a very simple setting of 9 (or 9 million) people who don\u2019t like the status quo, option D<\/em><\/strong>, whereupon 4 of them move a motion, option A<\/em><\/strong>. \u00a03 of them would like to amend this so that it would become option B<\/em><\/strong>. \u00a0And 2 of them go for option C<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In this scenario, all concerned \u2013 and in those days of the city states, this meant only the male citizens, women and slaves were not allowed \u2013 would first choose the more preferred amendment, B<\/em><\/strong> versus C<\/em><\/strong>; next, they would adopt or reject this amendment B\/C<\/em><\/strong> v A<\/em><\/strong> to get the substantive as it\u2019s called, and finally, they would choose either this substantive or the status quo: {(B\/C<\/em><\/strong> or A<\/em>) <\/strong>v D<\/em>}.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Diagram 1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The Order of Voting<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

v\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 =\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2026..<\/p>\n

C<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 v\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 =\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2026..<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 A<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 v\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 =\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u2026..<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Now let us assume these 9 persons have the following preferences:<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.23.3″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

Table I\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 A Voters\u2019 Profile<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Preferences<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Number of Voters<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

1st<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

2nd<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

3rd<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

4th<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.23.3″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

If we take singleton majority votes, and if everyone votes in favour of only their 1st<\/sup> preferences, then sure enough, there are majorities of 5, 6, 7 and all 9 against options A, B, C<\/em><\/strong> and D<\/em><\/strong> respectively.\u00a0 If we use pairings however, well, there are six of them: comparing A <\/em><\/strong>and B <\/em><\/strong>to start with, we see that 4 + 2 prefer A<\/em><\/strong> to B<\/em><\/strong>, which only 3 prefer B<\/em><\/strong> to A<\/em><\/strong>, so A<\/em><\/strong> is more popular than B<\/em><\/strong>, which we write as<\/p>\n

A > B<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The full list is as follows:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A:B\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>=\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6:3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>so\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 A > B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A:C\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>=\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4:5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>so\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 C > A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A:S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>=\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4:5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>so\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 S > A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

B:C\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>=\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7:2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>so\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 B > C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

B:S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>=\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7:2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>so\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 B > S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>and<\/p>\n

C:S\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>=\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9:0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>so\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 C > S<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So, using this data in the above order of voting, we get a democratic decision.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Diagram II\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 A Democratic Decision<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

v\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 =\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

C<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 v\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 =\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 A<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 v\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 =\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

In summary, these 9 persons, having decided that they don\u2019t like option D<\/em><\/strong>, then decide that they like option D.\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>Initially, the House of Commons didn\u2019t like Boris Johnson\u2019s proposal, and if the question asked had been a singleton \u2013 \u201cOption D<\/em><\/strong>, yes-or-no?\u201d \u2013 it would have lost.\u00a0 In a pairing, however, especially when posed against (raw turnips or) \u2018no deal\u2019, it \u2018won\u2019.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But hang on.\u00a0 If the motion was option B<\/em><\/strong> and the two amendments were A<\/em><\/strong> and C<\/em><\/strong>, the result would be B.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Diagram III\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 A Different Democratic Decision<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

v\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 =\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

C<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 v\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 =\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 B<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 v\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 =\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 S<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Or if option C<\/em><\/strong> was the motion while A<\/em><\/strong> and B <\/em><\/strong>were the two amendments, yet another democratic decision would be C<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In our second nutshell, the outcome depends upon the order of voting, so the whole thing is open to horrible manipulation.\u00a0 As it was in Brexit.\u00a0 Furthermore, resolving disputes by majority vote can be downright dangerous.\u00a0 Indeed, \u201call the wars in the former Yugoslavia started with a referendum,\u201d to quote Oslobodjenje<\/em>, Sarajevo\u2019s famous newspaper; the same is true of the conflict in Ukraine.\u00a0 And in the Middle East, binary voting was the tool by which Netanyahu established the most extreme right-wing coalition ever!<\/p>\n

In numerous cases of binary voting (but not in Brexit), the question is the answer.\u00a0 A different way of doing things, a preferential points system of voting now called the Modified Borda Count MBC was suggested by Jean-Charles de Borda in 1770.\u00a0 It worked quite well in the French Academy of Sciences, but one guy didn\u2019t like it very much, so he reverted to the unrevolutionary majority vote.\u00a0 This meant he could choose the question; he chose himself; and in a referendum in 1803, the question was the answer, and France thus had an emperor, one Napol\u00e9on Bonaparte \u2013 a \u2018democratic dictator\u2019, one could say.<\/p>\n

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Peter Emerson alongside the statue of Jean-Charles de Borda,\u00a0capitaine et savant, in\u00a0l\u2019\u00c9cole Navale\u00a0in Brest, 24.9.2010. Photo by Gwenaelle Bichelot.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

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<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A HISTORICAL INTERLUDE<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

But let\u2019s go back a little further.\u00a0 2,500 years ago, our Greek forebears used a few inventions, two of which were the spade and majority voting.\u00a0 Both are still used today.\u00a0 Admittedly, on very complex tasks, we use machines like diggers and excavators, but the spade is still quite useful, not least in my vegetable garden for growing raw turnips etc..<\/p>\n

For some crazy reasons, however, and despite the invention of more accurate voting procedures, societies world-wide still use the old blunt binary vote.\u00a0 It\u2019s in the United Nations for example, and in democratic parliaments everywhere.\u00a0 It is indeed ubiquitous.\u00a0 It\u2019s even enshrined in Article 97 of North Korea\u2019s Constitution.\u00a0 It was used, it is said, in 1989 in China, when the Communist Party Standing Committee took a yes-or-no vote on military intervention in Ti\u0101n\u2019\u0101nm\u00e9n Square.\u00a0 In the same year, Iran took a referendum on becoming an Islamic Republic, so the Shi\u2019a voted in favour while the Sunnis, in contrast, abstained\u2026 just like the Catholics in Northern Ireland\u2019s border poll of 1973, or the Orthodox in Croatia\u2019s plebiscite on independence in 1991, or the Moslems in Nagorno-Karabakh in 1994, and so on. \u00a0It is indeed a horribly blunt instrument!<\/p>\n

Majority voting was also the basis of the Soviet Union: in 1903, the All-Russia Social Democratic Party took a majority vote, 19 in favour, 17 against, and 3 abstentions.\u00a0 But 19 was only the largest minority; there was no majority; Lenin nevertheless pretended this 19 was a majority (bolshinstvo<\/em>) so he called his team the Bolsheviks, while the 17, the second minority (menshinstvo<\/em>) became the Mensheviks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Everywhere, it seems, majority voting is open to manipulation.\u00a0 The first person to realise this was Pliny the Younger in the year 105.\u00a0 In a murder trial in Rome, the jury had three options \u2013 A, B<\/em><\/strong> and C<\/em><\/strong>, A<\/strong>cquittal, B<\/strong>anishment or C<\/strong>apital punishment \u2013 and yet again, there was a majority against everything. \u00a0If the question was binary, like \u201cInnocent, yes-or-no?\u201d B <\/em><\/strong>and C<\/em><\/strong> would outvote A<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0 If asked, \u201cExecution, yes-or-no?\u201d A<\/em><\/strong> and B <\/em><\/strong>would oppose C.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0 In a third nutshell, in any multi-option debate, majority voting with singletons is useless\u2026 but often used (as in Brexit).<\/p>\n

Multi-option voting was I suppose inevitable, and the first \u2018government\u2019 to use a more pluralist methodology was Chinese.\u00a0 In 1197, the Mongols were seen as a threat, and the question, war or peace, was reduced to three options: attack, defend, or alternate between the two; the vote was 5, 46 and 33 respectively.<\/p>\n

In like manner, preferential voting was also, perhaps, inevitable, and in 1298, Ram\u00f3n Llull mooted, in 1433 Nicholas Cusanus devised, and in 1770 as we mentioned Jean-Charles de Borda developed the MBC.<\/p>\n

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<\/strong><\/h3>\n

PLURALISM IS POSSIBLE<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Just as the spade is good for turnips, majority voting is ok if the topic is uncontentious: shall we now break for coffee?\u00a0 But it\u2019s no good for controversies.\u00a0 So now let us consider multi-option voting.\u00a0 If there are only 2 options, the vote has to be a (simple, weighted or consociational) binary vote.\u00a0 With multi-option voting, however, there are lots of ways of doing things, for the outcome could be the option which wins<\/p>\n

+\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 the most 1st<\/sup> preferences,<\/p>\n

+\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 the least last, \u00a0<\/p>\n

+\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 a knock-out competition,<\/p>\n

+\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 a league where, (as in sport), every option is compared to every other option in pairings (or matches).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consider then a slightly more complex scenario: the first three columns are from Table I, but I\u2019ve added 4 more voters, 3 for option D<\/em><\/strong> and 1 for a new option E: <\/em><\/strong>13 voters in all, so a majority would be 7.<\/p>\n

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Table II\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 A Second Voters\u2019 Profile<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Preferences<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Number of Voters<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

1st<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

E<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

2nd<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

3rd<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

C<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

4th<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

D<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

B<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

5th<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

E<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

E<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

E<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

E<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

A<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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In a plurality vote where you vote for one option only, the winner is option A<\/em><\/strong> on a score of 4, only the largest minority.<\/p>\n

In two-round voting, a plurality vote followed by a majority vote \u2013 so th winner definitely has a majority \u2013 the second round is either A <\/em><\/strong>v B<\/em><\/strong> or A<\/em><\/strong> v D<\/em><\/strong>, and the winner would be B <\/em><\/strong>or D<\/em><\/strong> on a score of 7 or 9.<\/p>\n

The alternative vote AV, (which Americans call ranked choice voting RCV), is like a series of plurality votes; if nothing gets a majority, the least popular \u2013 and here it\u2019s option E <\/em><\/strong>\u2013 is eliminated, and its vote is transferred to its 2nd<\/sup> preference, option D<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0 The score line is now A<\/em><\/strong>-4, B<\/em><\/strong>-3, C<\/em><\/strong>-2, D<\/em><\/strong>-4; still nothing with a majority, so C<\/em><\/strong> is now eliminated\u2026 and the process continues until one option does get a majority\u2026 option D<\/em><\/strong> on a score of 9.<\/p>\n

In a Borda Count points system \u2013 a 1st<\/sup> preference gets 5 points, a 2nd<\/sup> gets 4, and so on \u2013 the winner is option C <\/em><\/strong>on a score of 49.<\/p>\n

Lastly (in this paper), a Condorcet count compares all the pairings: A > E,<\/em><\/strong> but that\u2019s all; option B<\/em><\/strong> wins all its pairings; and the social ranking is A<\/em><\/strong>-1, B<\/em><\/strong>-4, C<\/em><\/strong>-3, D<\/em><\/strong>-2, E<\/em><\/strong>-0, and the winner is B<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

So the winner could be A, B, C <\/em><\/strong>or D<\/em><\/strong>.\u00a0 In our fourth nutshell, the outcome of democratic decision-making depends, in this and many other instances, on the voting procedure.\u00a0 Of the methodologies analysed here, only the MBC and Condorcet take all<\/em> the preference cast by all<\/em> the voters into consideration, always<\/em>.\u00a0 They are the most accurate.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

PREFERENTIAL POINTS VOTING<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Of the two, the MBC is non-majoritarian: at best, it can identify the option with the highest average<\/em><\/strong> preference, and an average, of course, includes every<\/em> voter.\u00a0 With the MBC, the words \u2018majority\u2019, \u2018minority\u2019 and \u2018veto\u2019 could fade from the political lexicon, and the consequences in conflict zones like the Middle East could be huge!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So, how does it work?\u00a0 In a 5-option ballot,<\/p>\n

+\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 he who casts only a 1st<\/sup> preference gets his favourite just 1 point;<\/p>\n

+\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 she who casts 2 preferences gets her favourite 2 points and he 2nd<\/sup> choice 1 point;<\/p>\n

and so on; so<\/p>\n

+\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 those who cast all 5 preferences get their favourite 5 points, their 2nd<\/sup> preference 4, etc..\u00a0 The difference is always just 1 point.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In effect, the MBC encourages the voters to cast not only their 1st<\/sup> preferences but also their compromise option(s)\u2026 and if every voter does that, we can then identify the collective compromise.\u00a0 Which is what democracy is all about.\u00a0 Or should be.<\/p>\n

So, let\u2019s take a budget.\u00a0 In, say, a ten-party parliament, each party can propose its own, or maybe some of the smaller parties might join forces; ok, let\u2019s imagine 8 options are \u2018on the table\u2019 and a dedicated website, all laid out in a similar format.\u00a0 As each is debated, MPs might propose amendments, composites, or even deletions\u2026 but nothing is adopted unless the original proposer agrees.\u00a0 It means, however, that the number of options in contention may vary.\u00a0 If it all boils down to just one option, this may be regarded as the verbal consensus.\u00a0<\/p>\n

If (as is more likely) differences remain, the Speaker may produce a (short) list of never 2, seldom 3, usually from 4 to 6 options, on which the MPs then cast their preferences.\u00a0 Then, if the option with the highest average preference is above a certain pre-determined threshold, this option can be enacted.\u00a0 And even if it wasn\u2019t their 1st<\/sup> preference, every MP shall share a collective responsibility to ensure that this will of parliament is then implemented.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

CONCLUSION<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

In every forum, the MBC could be used to identify the best possible compromise.\u00a0 In politics everywhere, win-or-lose majority votes could be replaced by win-win consensus votes, confrontation could be replaced by cooperation, majority (coalition) governments could give way to all-party power-sharing, the PVV would be in parliament and in government, so too would the AfD be in cabinet in Berlin, and Sinn F\u00e9in in Dublin, but in all three capitals, decisions would be taken in consensus.\u00a0 No majority could dominate; no minority could veto. And all countries would be far-better equipped to tackle the problems of Covid and Climate Change. <\/p>\n

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By Peter Emerson<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

For more information watch our interview with Peter Emerson here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Peace through Dialogue<\/h3>\n

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 <\/p>\n

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Decision-Makingby Peter Emerson Director, the de Borda InstituteLife is full of decisions.\u00a0 Many have been taken violently, but then the Greeks decided to do things democratically.\u00a0 Umm, they thought\u2026 so the science of decision-making is ancient, and the instruments are several.\u00a0 For some crazy reasons, however, the world still uses the most primitive tool of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7300,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"1080","content-type":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-democracy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7283\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7300"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thehaguepeace.org\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}